Transforming Church

Higher numbers translate into more people who have been introduced to Jesus Christ as their Savior. The vast majority of congregations today are experiencing declining numbers. Even those who cling to the same numbers are managing to only slightly add numbers. Obeying the Great Commission requires the Church to multiply numbers, not add them. There are a fair number of evangelical congregations today which accomplish that, but only a relative few mainline congregations multiply numbers.

At the same time there are fewer and fewer people in church all the time. The Gallup and Barna polls still report 43% of American adults in church on a given weekend, but until recently there has been no more current or accurate data. As of 2004, however, there is comprehensive data from a cross-section of over 170,000 congregations, as well as a narrower base of information on all 300,000 orthodox Christian congregations located in the United States.

This data shows that only 18.7% of the population in the United States attended worship on any given weekend in the year 2000. The percentage had been declining significantly for a decade already, and since then has declined even more. Unless the existing 300,000 congregations and their church bodies do something significantly different, the future of these existing congregations can be projected as well. Fewer and fewer people will be reached with Jesus Christ.

The percentage of population in church on a weekend will continue to decline unless the Church refocuses dramatically in a transformational way on growth. According to Olson, without that we will drop to 17.1% by 2010, 15.6% in 2020, and by 2050 we will be reaching barely above 10%.

Looking at those numbers only for mainline churches, including Roman Catholic, 2000 saw 9.6% of the population, 2010 will be 8.1%, 2020 at 6.9% and 2050 4.3%. At that point mainline churches apart from the Roman Catholic Church will comprise only 1.5% of the total population. That means mainline churches like Methodist, Episcopal, Lutheran, Presbyterian, etc. will each be less than a quarter percent of the total population. The picture cannot be painted any more serious. Churches like the Lutheran Church have been talking about increasing a sense of discipleship for fifteen years now, and all during that time have continued to decline. Talk alone will not do it.

Looking at the size of congregations today is still another way to view this trend. 85% of all congregations are considered small congregations, those with an average weekly attendance below 300. Most of these congregations are declining. Most older congregations, those organized prior to 1960-65, have been declining since 1990.

Starting new congregations has not kept up with population growth, mainly for budget reasons. 4,600 new congregations were started in the 1990’s but another 38,802 were needed. The result contributed to a decade of greater decline. With new church starts, mainline churches overall grew 5.7% but the population grew 13.2%. Of that growth which was experienced by mainline churches, over 86% of it was realized by starting new congregations. At the same time many of those same mainline church bodies have nationally been declining in total membership for ten to fifteen years.

There is today more than one way to demonstrate the Christian Church in the United States being in crisis with the mission Jesus Christ has given it, but what we see here in a longer perspective shows trouble regarding the Church’s very existence.

As much as the Church was in need of severe transformation with the beginning of the Modern Age in the 16th Century, the Church today is again in need of severe transformation with the beginning of the Post-modern Age. Considering today’s much greater rate of change, this transformation is even more critical. In the 16th Century it took a reformation and counter-reformation to accomplish it. From leadership to laity, we have yet to see what will bring it to effect today.

Statistics used in this article were provided by David T. Olson in his slide presentation, “12 Surprising Facts about the American Church,” copyright 2004, permission requested. David is the Director of Church Planting for the Evangelical Covenant Church. For more information go to www.TheAmericanChurch.org, or email DaveTOlson@aol.com