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Don't Waste Time Trying To Justify Lack Of Growth
i.e. "We focus on caring ...not growing"
That has become the "defensive" response today of many congregations that are declining in membership. What happened to focusing on both growing and caring at the same time? What happened to accepting the Great Commission (Matt 28) which places even greater priority on growing than caring? If you cannot describe yourself as growing, please do not turn to the cover-up that claims instead we are "friendly" or "caring."
Higher numbers translate into more people who have been introduced to Jesus Christ as their Savior. The vast majority of congregations today are experiencing declining numbers. Even those who cling to the same numbers are managing to only slightly add numbers. Obeying the Great Commission requires the Church to multiply numbers, not add them. There are a fair number of evangelical congregations today which accomplish that, but only a relative few mainline congregations multiply numbers.
At the same time there are fewer and fewer people in church all the time. The Gallup and Barna polls still report 43% of American adults in church on a given weekend, but until recently there has been no more current or accurate data. As of 2004, however, there is comprehensive data from a cross-section of over 170,000 congregations, as well as a narrower base of information on all 300,000 orthodox Christian congregations located in the United States.
This data shows that only 18.7% of the population in the United States attended worship on any given weekend in the year 2000. The percentage had been declining significantly for a decade already, and since then has declined even more. Unless the existing 300,000 congregations and their church bodies do something significantly different, the future of these existing congregations can be projected as well. Fewer and fewer people will be reached with Jesus Christ.
The percentage of population in church on a weekend will continue to decline unless the Church refocuses dramatically in a transformational way on growth. According to Olson, without that we will drop to 17.1% by 2010, 15.6% in 2020, and by 2050 we will be reaching barely above 10%.
Looking at those numbers only for mainline churches, including Roman Catholic, 2000 saw 9.6% of the population, 2010 will be 8.1%, 2020 at 6.9% and 2050 4.3%. At that point mainline churches apart from the Roman Catholic Church will comprise only 1.5% of the total population. That means mainline churches like Methodist, Episcopal, Lutheran, Presbyterian, etc. will each be less than a quarter percent of the total population. The picture cannot be painted any more serious. Churches like the Lutheran Church have been talking about increasing a sense of discipleship for fifteen years now, and all during that time have continued to decline. Talk alone will not do it.
Looking at the size of congregations today is still another way to view this trend. 85% of all congregations are considered small congregations, those with an average weekly attendance below 300. Most of these congregations are declining. Most older congregations, those organized prior to 1960-65, have been declining since 1990.
Starting new congregations has not kept up with population growth, mainly for budget reasons. 4,600 new congregations were started in the 1990’s but another 38,802 were needed. The result contributed to a decade of greater decline. With new church starts, mainline churches overall grew 5.7% but the population grew 13.2%. Of that growth which was experienced by mainline churches, over 86% of it was realized by starting new congregations. At the same time many of those same mainline church bodies have nationally been declining in total membership for ten to fifteen years.
There is today more than one way to demonstrate the Christian Church in the United States being in crisis with the mission Jesus Christ has given it, but what we see here in a longer perspective shows trouble regarding the Church’s very existence.
As much as the Church was in need of severe transformation with the beginning of the Modern Age in the 16th Century, the Church today is again in need of severe transformation with the beginning of the Post-modern Age. Considering today’s much greater rate of change, this transformation is even more critical. In the 16th Century it took a reformation and counter-reformation to accomplish it. From leadership to laity, we have yet to see what will bring it to effect today.
Statistics used in this article were provided by David T. Olson in his slide presentation, “12 Surprising Facts about the American Church,” copyright 2004, permission requested. David is the Director of Church Planting for the Evangelical Covenant Church. For more information go to www.TheAmericanChurch.org, or email DaveTOlson@aol.com
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Comments on this Entry:
Pr. Ganzel makes a good point and he has said the same message loud and clear for the last several years but no one seems to be paying attention. The ELCA came out with a revised Evangelism Strategy several years ago but has spent much of it's time on the question of sexuality issues in the ELCA churches. Out of the 217 churches in Florida, better that two thirds worship less that 200 on a Sunday. The Lutheran Magazine recently reported that the decline in mainline churches is due to a reduction in birth rates. The decline should go to the heart of the matter to a lack of real and relevant preaching and how the scriptures talk to the person in the pew. For unchurched Harry or Sue looking for a church home, the mainliners are falling short. Those churches that step out of their comfort zone like Pr. Ganzel alludes to and target the unchurched will grow and be blessed while the others looking inward will stagnate and die.
Posted by: jameskovach at June 19, 2006 01:03 PM
I've been doing a lot of thinking regarding the declining "membership" in mainline churches. Our Lutheran congregation has experienced a 20% decrease in attendance in one year!!!! We have over two thousand baptized members, but our attendance this year is averaging a little more than 400. Shocking..and it should be a wake up call. Sadly I don't see us honestly facing this problem honestly & humbly. We wrack our brains trying to figure out what is wrong and try new programs (read gimmicks) to get people in the building. What new members we do get are mainly transfers from other Lutheran congregations ( we have had 2 local Lutheran congregations close in the past 3 years) or people who moved into town and were looking for an ELCA congregation. That's about it.
Two observations:
1)I have not heard one suggestion that perhaps we should get on our knees, repent and admit that we do not have the faintest idea what we are doing and ask our Father to show us what is going on. Somehow I think we are trying to deal with the symptoms and not the disease. Maybe we should quit stumbling around in the dark & ask the Head of the Church to show us what to do.
2)We talk about the Great Commission and somehow end up focusing on gaining members, not making disciples. Only disciples make other disciples; not buildings, programs, orgainzations, etc. Only disciples are light and salt. Members are just that..members.
Posted by: Joe M at June 26, 2006 08:41 PM
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