Transforming Church

As appalling as these statistics are, the worst projection news for these churches is that 35% of all who attend are already over sixty years of age. And if that is not bad enough, in the huge number of these congregations in serious decline, as many as 85-90% of attendees are over sixty. Those congregations in another 20-25 years will no longer exist.

One symptom of this dilemma is related to the mainline difficulty in attracting a cross-section of our present society. Not as an inclusive assessment, but allow us here to note a couple of examples. Young adults 25 or younger make up 6% of our population, but those attending mainline congregations, while 2% of those attending, make-up only the trace of a percentage point of the total population. Another example can be seen in a failure to attract minorities. Again to cite just one example, Hispanics make up 16% of our total population, and while Hispanics are 6% of those attending, they represent only about 1% of the total population.

A serious enough fact in itself, but minor in the overall problem, operational costs in the average congregation have risen 51%. Offerings are disastrously behind that. Negative enough, but that may be the least of the mainline challenges so we will spend no more time with it.

A much bigger worry is the decreasing involvement of congregants in congregational life. Attendance has been hit nowhere near as hard as volunteerism. Member involvement is down over 20% in the last decade alone. At TC.com we have been advocating hard for churches to abandon membership in favor of discipleship, which, if fully approached as a death and resurrection matter, is the only cure for this growing problem.

Church members themselves are waffling. Only a tiny percent have any sense of being involved in a personal discipleship activity. Additionally, less than half of those attending see the Bible as being accurate in the life principles it teaches. And when asked to identify their highest priority in life, only 9% of attendees even identify some aspect of faith as their top priority.

The tenuous ties that millions of mainline adults have with their church are exemplified by their willingness to consider other spiritual options. Just half (49%) describe themselves as “absolutely committed to Christianity.” Slightly more (51%) are willing to try a new church. Two-thirds (67%) are open to pursuing faith in environments or structures that are different from those of a typical church. Almost three-quarters (72%) say they are more likely to develop their own religious beliefs than to adopt those taught by their church. And nine out of ten (86%) sense that God is motivating people to stay connected to Him through different means and experiences than in the past. (Barna Group)

The face of pastors who lead mainline congregations has been rapidly changing as well. Ten years ago the median age of mainline senior pastors was 48; today it is 55. That has been brought about by a combination of things. Too few young people have been entering full-time ministry, while at the same time the number of second or third career pastors has risen dramatically. A higher percentage of pastors today are refusing or otherwise do not see the chance to retire. Paradoxically, however, if they did, the shortage of pastors itself would be compounded. And to mention one last factor identified by the study, most protestant churches have been weak in succession planning.

The complexities of decline in mainline churches have in themselves produced a shortening of the tenure for pastors to an average of four years. The long-time decision of small rural parishes in the past to just wait out the time until their pastor seeks another Call is becoming characteristic of multiple-sized congregations, whether they see their current pastor as ineffective or as meddlesome in their personal desires as a congregation.

George Barna himself actually believes the church has weathered the past decade better than most analysts imagined, but its prospects are dire. We have to hope the Holy Spirit is already at work laying the groundwork for a new expression of church to emerge. As they say in Advent, “Hurry up and come” Holy Spirit!